New Simply Wealth Blog: The Brexit Debate

Welcome to our new #simply wealth blog.

On this blog we will be focussing on all things wealth.

For the first post we have decided to be really brave and wade into the Euro Referendum debate…..from an impartial point of view of course.

Everyone is entitled to their own view, but what we have seen from both ‘official’ sides of the debate has been less than positive.

Each side trying to out do the other in the morning papers and radio shows with increasingly implausible headlines.

I consider myself to be a political person and I enjoy a good debate as much the next guy but even I am finding myself completely tuning out of this one.

So rather than debating the finer points of each case, of which there are many, I thought I would look at this in the context of investment portfolios and our clients, as that’s what this blog is about at the end of the day.

There can be no question over the effect of an exit vote on the investment markets, it would be a painful experience for all concerned for an indeterminate period of time.

As we stand today the markets have already priced in a remain vote, interestingly so have the bookies, so they are fairly confident that when all is said and done the UK will still be a part of the EU.

The result of this is likely to be a sharp rise in markets and a strengthening of the pound.

That is not to say that will be the end of the the matter with the government threatening to tear itself in two, which could see a General Election this year.

So when all this is going on around you it is definitely a time for cool heads: see below from Lothar Mental CEO of Tatton Investment, one of our investment managers.

He outlines a number of key points which boil down to a few key considerations.

  • Personal economic considerations will outweigh any thoughts of patriotism or passion.
  • Tatton have a high conviction there will be a remain vote, which has already been priced in by markets (not to mention the bookies).
  • Anyone waiting to invest might want to consider the opportunity cost of a rally in the markets which may come before the vote itself if the markets are satisfied a remain vote is more than likely
  • Overly de-risking portfolios is likely to have a detrimental effect on long term outcomes given that the only major wars or the abolition of economic parameters of the global economy have any lasting impact on capital markets, neither of which this vote is about.

I welcome any comments and thoughts. As I mentioned earlier everyone is entitled to their own opinion…….it would be a bit dull if we weren’t.